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ePaper created 2015-12-01, 11:33:23 | version 1.43.00
23 in focus the winter months. The Northwest and Northeast Pas- sages are now almost ice-free for much of the year. Similar record-breaking levels of melting have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula for many years. A fourfold increase in heat waves One of the consequences of the melting of glaciers is sea level rise. The IPCC now expects sea levels to rise between a quarter metre and almost one metre by 2100. It is certain that the current rate of sea level rise – 2.6 mm per year – will increase. There are also signs that weather conditions are worsening in many parts of the world. With regard to heat waves, the situation is clear- cut: they have increased fourfold since the start of the Industrial Revolution, and if the planet warms by more than 4° C, this would lead to a 62-fold increase in heat extremes. So the key question, which was already preoccupy- ing policy-makers at the 2009 climate conference in Copenhagen, is this: how realistic is a temperature rise of no more than 2° C? And even if this is achieved, will it be enough to meet the international community’s goal of avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’? Anticipating that it may in fact be unavoidable, various private, regional and local adaptation initiatives have been launched in a num- ber of countries. But this costs money – large sums of money. According to the World Bank, adaptation to climate change is likely to cost EUR 70 to 100 billion per year by 2050 even if warming is held at 2° C. New York, one of the world’s most densely popu- lated cities, already faces the probability of a ‘hundred year flood’ once every 80 years; from mid-century, this is likely to increase to once every 19 years. In a process in which New Yorkers themselves were engaged, the city has therefore drawn up the ‘One New York’ plan, which lists numerous innovations, from the construction of new dams and dikes to the planting of 950,000 trees as the city’s green infrastructure and as another line of defence against flooding. The city of Cusco, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in the Peruvian Andes, is currently implementing an » The video ‘The History of Climate Change Negotia tions in 83 seconds’ is an amusing and entertain- ing – although inevitably brief and somewhat simpli fied – retelling of the story of the climate process. www.youtube.com/ watch?v=B11kASPfYxY Curitiba – Brazil’s green metropolis This city switched to sustainability early on. As a result, its CO2 emissions are 25 per cent lower than in other Brazilian cities. 52 m2 GREEN SPACE PER PERSON 60% OF RESIDENTS USE LOCAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT 1,100 buses, 12,500 journeys a day, more than 1.3 million passengers 70% OF WASTE IS RECYCLED Major goal: green cities Many cities have set themselves specific and, in some cases, very ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. They include a number of cities in developing countries. Sources: United Nations, City of Cape Town, London School of Economics, Natural Resources Defense Council, City of Curitiba, Green Planet Monitor, Mother Nature Network, Asia-Pacific Research Center, C40 Cities Frankfurt This German city on the River Main aims to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050. ASPEN This US city aims to switch to 100 per cent renewable energy by the end of 2015. BOGOTÁ The Colombian capital aims to re- duce its greenhouse gas emissions by around 16 per cent by 2019. DA NANG This major port in Viet Nam aims to cut its CO2 emissions by 14 per cent by 2020.